Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy

Kevin Korb


Bayesian reasoning has been applied formally to statistical inference, machine learning and analysing scientific method. Here I apply it informally to more common forms of inference, namely natural language arguments. I analyse a variety of traditional fallacies, deductive, inductive and causal, and find more merit in them than is generally acknowledged. Bayesian principles provide a framework for understanding ordinary arguments which is well worth developing.


Bayesian reasoning, logical fallacies, statistical fallacies, causal fallacies, teaching probabilistic reasoning

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ISSN: 0824-2577